Warren Buffet, one of the world's richest men and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, once told shareholders, "We've long felt that the only value stock of forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie [Munger] and I continue to believe that short term market forecasts are poison and should be locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."
In his book One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lynch, one of the best mutual fund managers of all time, wrote, "Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, oversold indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed's policy on money supply, foreign investment, the movement of constellations in the heavens, and the moss on oak trees, can't predict the markets with any useful consistency, any more that gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack."
These men understood that humility is essential to investment success--as it is to so much else in our lives.
In my humble opinion, humility doesn't mean selling yourself short or not exercising your talents to the fullest. It means making an honest appraisal, the limited knowledge, experience and understanding that we all bring to life.
It means having a realistic perspective, understanding that -- whatever our particular talents--we are not the center of the universe. "We are all worms," Winston Churchill remarked. "But I do believe I am a glow-worm."
Humility is becoming. It wears well. Truly confident people don't need to brag or boast. It's much more attractive for people to discover your many charms.
Secure individuals don't lord their status over others. evevn if you are truly one-in-a-million kind of guy or gal, in a world of 6 billion people that means there are thousands more just like you.
A companionable friend or dinner guest knows better topics of conversation than just himself. "There are two types of people in this world observed Frederick L. Collins, "Those who come into the room and say, "Well, here I am!' and those who come in and say, 'Ah, there you are!'"
Could anyone really prefer spending time with the former?
A modest attitude also demonstrates maturity. "Let us be humble," said Jawaharlal Nehru. "Let us think that the truth may not perhaps be entirely with us."
Live long enough and you're likely to learn that life is one long lesson in humility. Things don't always turn out like we planned over even imagined.
Our happiness is determined, in large part, by how we handle these inevitable surprises. Because uncertainty will always be with us. Perhaps that is why Pulitzer Prize--winning columnist George Will once described his idea of heaven as "infinite knowing."
Recognizing the limits of our knowledge in invaluable, whether we're analyzing problems, figuring out relationships--or even puzzling over the big existential questions. Why are we here? Where did we come from? What is it all about?
Scientists, philosophers, and theologians have struggled with these for thousands of years. And still wrestle with them today.
As Nobel Prize-winning particle physicist Leon Lederman wryly observed, the universe is the answer. What we still don't know is the question.
This humble attitude has been embraced by great minds throughout history, from Aristotle to Newton to Einstein to Gandhi.
As Sioux Indian Chief Ota Kte observed a century ago, "After all the great religions have been preached and expounded, or have been revealed by brilliant scholars, or have been written in books and embellished in fine language with fine covers, man--all man--is still confronted with the Great Mystery.
Stay hungry and humble,
Peter Mclees
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